Tuesday, September 24, 2019

'Best to set date for transfer to Anwar: Analysts'@Sun Daily, 24 September 2019


SUN DAILY
Best to set date for transfer to Anwar: Analysts


24 Sep 2019 / 15:24 H.

 

PETALING JAYA: The best way forward for Malaysia and Pakatan Harapan is for Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to firm up a date to pass the baton to PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (pix), political analysts said.

This would ensure a smooth transition in leadership, they said. Assoc Prof Dr Jeniri Amir of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak said Pakatan Harapan has to abide by the promise made before the last general election for Anwar to take over.

“This will create a certainty which is important not only for domestic politics but also investor confidence,” he told theSun yesterday in response to Anwar’s statement during an interview with Bloomberg that he expected to take over some time in May 2020.

Jeniri said the question whether PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali or his counterpart in Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir would become prime minister was irrelevant.

“Who is the president of PKR? It’s Anwar, so it’s a clear cut case. For anyone else to claim the position is nonsensical,” he said.

Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said while Anwar would like to take over in May 2020, both he and Mahathir would have to come to a final decision to ensure a smooth transition, like how Mahathir passed the baton to Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2003.

He said Azmin and Mukhriz’s names did not crop up during the 14th general election.

“Both names only came up when cracks began to appear in PKR. Mukhriz appeared as an alternative but Mahathir has always said it would be Anwar.”

 


Tuesday, September 17, 2019

'After charter signing, analysts say takes more than rural Malay voters for Umno-PAS to win polls'@Malay Mail, 17 September 2019

 

 
 KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17 — As Umno and PAS formalise their political pact with a charter on Saturday, political analysts said that the two parties would still need present a “holistic package” to attract non-Malays to support their Malay-Islamist union.
They said the two former rivals cannot just bank on Malay-Muslim voters in rural seats, but also convince the minorities and their own allies, before they could think about unseating Pakatan Harapan (PH) from Putrajaya in the 15th general election (GE15).
“Depending on rural Malays, will not help them to win federal power. As for now, Umno-PAS will have to gather support via Barisan Nasional-PAS in order to win the non-Malays’ support,” Universiti Sains Malaysia's political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian told Malay Mail.
“We know it’s divided between Malay and non-Malay voters, yet Umno-PAS might have to create a new package for the coming general election as a supplement to the charter that comprises the needs, demands and mindset of all Malaysians with Malay-Islam as the base as stipulated in our Constitution.”


The professor also said he expects to see an intense fight across Malay-majority seats in the run-up to the next general election that has to be called by 2023.

“Provided seat allocation are not challenged or sabotaged, we will see intense fights in some states. Most importantly, both have to convince voters at the grassroots level to vote for their candidate, regardless from BN or PAS,” he said.

Umno and Barisan Nasional suffered a shocking defeat during the 14th general election, while PAS became worse off compared to when it had joined Pakatan Rakyat, which then became PH.

Now, they are eyeing 119 Malay-majority seats in Peninsular Malaysia, with an agreement to not contest in the same seat.

In the last elections, both parties had a combined popular vote of some 4.3 million out of 11.6 million registered voters in the 14th general election (GE14).

Both parties are reported to have roughlt 70 per cent of the Malay votes, compared to only 30 per cent for PH.

“Even though Umno-PAS might have enough seats from peninsula, the new deal should also look for a formula to include Sabah and Sarawak. I’m uncertain at this point if it’s enough to win federal because it may include protest vote and class factor as well, besides race and religion,” he said.

Meanwhile Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s analyst Azmi Hassan predicted that Umno and PAS could rally up to 96 seats, which may prove to be a formidable challenge to PH.

“Taking stock of 47 seats Umno won in peninsula plus the seven in Sabah and also two by MIC and one by MCA, which was won with Umno's support. So in total Umno has 57 seats. With PAS having 18 seats this would make a total of 75 seats that can be secured by both parties come GE15.

“Based on GE14 results, there are at least 21 Parliamentary seats where the number of votes gained by Umno and PAS were more than what PH received.

“The 96 seats are not enough to form a government, but these are considered secured seats under the Umno-PAS alliance,” he said.

However, Azmi also agreed that the pact needs to appeal to a broader audience if they wish to effectively form the next federal government.

He also pointed out that the Umno-PAS coalition could revert several state government into their control, based on GE14 results.

“Using similar assumptions, there are 45 extra state seats that can be easily won by Umno and PAS, with Selangor and Penang topping the list with nine seats, Kedah and Perak with eight seats respectively, Johor with six seats, Melaka and Negri Sembilan with two each and one seat in Perlis seat.

“With that figures Kedah and Perak is as good as gone for PH meanwhile for Neeri Sembilan and Melaka, PH looks very shaky and can go either way,” he said.

However, these numbers could be adversely affected by newer voters coming into play in GE15, the analysts suggested.

Political analyst Hoo Ke Ping said if GE15 were to take place in 2023, there will be an additional 7 million new voters ― with 6.3 million of them being Malays.

For Hoo, based on the current political and social issues that have purportedly caused uneasiness among the Malay community, they might find Umno-PAS as a viable alternative to PH.

“Mind you, most of these voters are in the rural area. Many perceived that the current PH government does not priorities the needs of the Malay community.

“With employment being cut across the board, lack of a holistic financial and economic policies to help the nation grow, this could negatively affect PH.

“Many will revert back to PAS and Umno, the latter of which many still regarded as the traditional defender of the Malay community who have repeatedly upheld public sector jobs for Malays,” he said.

However, Azmi said that both coalitions would have to work hard in the next few years to woo the new generation of voters, who will likely determine the outcome of GE15.

“I do believe that the 18 to 21-years-old voters effect will be far much greater compared to the Umno-PAS alliance as votes gained by both parties from their core supporters is already saturated.

“Umno and PAS need to reach out to this new range of voters and must work really hard to convince that their alliance is good for the younger voters,” he said.

 

 

'Piagam Muafakat Nasional Sukar Difahami Rakyat'@Berita Harian, 17 September 2019


Sila baca pandangan sepenuhnya tanpa hanya melihat kepada tajuk berita semata-mata.

Malaysian Nanban@17 September 2019


'Hala tuju Piagam Muafakat Nasional masih samar - penganalisis politik'@Bernama, 16 September 2019

 


Tarikh kemaskini: 16/09/2019
Oleh Mohd Faizal Hassan

KUALA LUMPUR, 16 Sept -- Piagam Muafakat Nasional, perjanjian kerjasama politik yang dimeterai UMNO-PAS Sabtu lepas, membuka satu lagi episod baharu dalam agenda politik negara, yang pastinya mengundang pelbagai reaksi dari kalangan pemerhati politik yang benar-benar berminat untuk mengetahui halatujunya.

Ada yang berpendapat ia bakal menjadi satu lagi retorik politik jika intipati dan pelaksanaannya tidak dijelaskan dengan baik dan tepat; bukan sahaja kepada khalayak yang hadir sewaktu majlis berlangsung, tetapi juga kepada masyarakat umum yang pastinya ingin tahu manfaat dan kebaikan yang boleh diharapkan daripada piagam itu.

Penganalisis politik dari Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian berkata beliau melihat akan wujud dilema pasca piagam itu memandangkan ia menitikberatkan isu-isu yang berkaitan dengan kaum, Raja dan Perlembagaan.

“Ia mungkin berdepan dengan cabaran dalam meyakinkan sokongan pengundi muda, kelas pertengahan selain cabaran mendapatkan sokongan dari Sabah dan Sarawak dalam mengambil kira faktor agama, kaum dan kelas masyarakat,” katanya kepada Bernama.

Perjanjian kerjasama politik yang dikenali sebagai Piagam Muafakat Nasional itu dimeterai oleh Parti Umno dan PAS sempena Himpunan Penyatuan Ummah, yang disempurnakan oleh kedua-dua presiden parti, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi dan Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang pada hari Sabtu lepas.

Piagam berkenaan adalah satu dokumen terperinci menggariskan prinsip asas kerjasama, rasional, struktur dan modus operandi kerjasama dirangka menerusi Jawatankuasa Induk dan Jawatankuasa Teknikal, yang masing-masing dianggotai 11 dan lima pemimpin bagi setiap parti.

Ia bakal memperincikan jawatankuasa berkaitan yang akan melaksana dan merealisasikan kerjasama pada peringkat pusat, negeri sehingga peringkat akar umbi selain satu tata kelola kerja bagaimana kedua-dua parti bergerak daripada sekarang hingga ke pilihan raya umum akan datang.

Dalam pada itu, geostrategis yang juga bekas pensyarah Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Prof Dr Azmi Hassan menyifatkan piagam itu seakan menyerupai konsep Malaysia Baharu atau prinsip Rukun Negara.

Tegasnya, muafakat itu dilihat tercetus berikutan persepsi Malaysia Baharu dibawa Pakatan Harapan (PH) yang kononnya telah mengetepikan kepentingan agama Islam dan bangsa Melayu.

“UMNO dan PAS sebagai parti politik telah ‘mencuri peluang’ yang terbuka luas dengan persepsi tidak baik terhadap PH,” katanya.

Sementara itu, penganalisis politik Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani berkata isi piagam berkenaan ‘ringkas’ dan perlu huraian yang lebih jelas kerana ia melibatkan soal agama, kaum, hal Melayu, kedudukan rakyat dan Perlembagaan.

"Ia tidak diulas dengan baik untuk meyakinkan rakyat. Malah hala tuju kerjasama UMNO-PAS sendiri belum jelas. Piagam ini tidak boleh menjadi retorik politik atau akan ditolak semasa pilihan raya umum kelak,” katanya.

Ahli Majlis Profesor Negara Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood pula berpendapat piagam itu dilihat akan menjadi cabaran kepada kerajaan PH untuk “walk the talk” dan seterusnya berusaha bersungguh-sungguh menyelesaikan isu berbangkit daripada manifesto yang dijanjikan sebelum ini.

"Ia juga satu cabaran kepada kerajaan sekarang untuk sama-sama memastikan isu sensitif ditangani dengan lebih berhati-hati untuk kepentingan semua,” jelasnya.

-- BERNAMA

'Pas-UMNO perlu dedah senarai 'Kabinet' lebih awal'@Sinar Harian, 16 September 2019

Monday, September 16, 2019

'Perak DAP discontent could be contagious, observers caution party'@Malay Mail, 16 September 2019

 

 
 IPOH, Sept 16 — Nga Kor Ming’s ambiguous defence of a DAP lawmaker whom colleagues believe is the target of a conspiracy could jeopardise the former’s once-ironclad control of the state chapter, political observers said.
Nga and his cousin, Datuk Ngeh Khoo Ham, have held the reins of Perak DAP for over a decade but recent acts of revolt suggest that brewing discontent with the party’s state leadership may be coming to a boil.
Nga courted controversy by telling the media that Paul Yong’s position as a state exco would be discussed by the central DAP leadership, prompting two of its Perak assemblymen to resign from their party positions in the state in protest.
Political analyst from Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman Teh Boon Teck said the open challenge against Nga by the two who had been thought to be members of his camp indicated a deeper undercurrent of unhappiness within the state chapter.
 
“The way Nga dealt with Yong is the straw that broke the camel’s back, causing those who used to support him in the party to no longer want to tolerate with him,” he told Malay Mail when contacted.
Yong was charged last month with raping his former Indonesian employee and initially refused to take a leave of absence, insisting the allegation was part of a political conspiracy.
He eventually relented after conferring with Perak Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu who assured him his position was not at risk, and gained the support of DAP colleagues who backed his claim of a conspiracy.

Nga triggered the minor rebellion by saying DAP would discuss Yong’s future, which Pokok Assam assemblyman Leow Thye Hin and Malim Nawar counterpart, Leong Cheok Keng, insist contradicted both Nga and the Perak MB’s previous remarks to the contrary.
The two quit their state positions and went on to escalate their campaign against Nga, telling him to resign as he has ostensibly lost the support of the state DAP chapter.
Teoh warned that if left to fester, Perak DAP’s discontent could infect the rest of the party.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Professor Sivamurugan Pandian said both sides in the Perak DAP standoff should allow Yong’s case to be decided in court before reacting, saying that the open bickering would harm both the state and federal administrations.

He also suggested that the national DAP leadership intervene before the row escalates.
However, sources within Perak DAP asserted to Malay Mail that their unhappiness with Nga was not solely because of his equivocal defence of Yong, but can be traced back to events immediately after the 14th general election.
  They said sections of the state chapter were upset that Nga was made the chairman of Perak DAP despite not having won the most votes in the party’s internal polls. He only came fifth out of 15 contenders.
“The dissatisfaction with Nga’s leadership existed long ago, but many did not voice out for fear of repercussions.
“However, Nga’s decision on Yong’s case is the final blow in this matter. Yong certainly has his own supporters and they used this issue to voice their discontentment,” one source said.
They pointed out that Wong May Ing secured the most votes while Abdul Aziz Bari was second, yet Nga was made Perak DAP chief due to his seniority.
They further alleged that Wong Kah Woh, the last of the 15 candidates, was made Perak state secretary simply because he is close to Nga.
“This is what causes a divide in the party,” one source said.
Despite the possible contagion, the central DAP leadership has been reluctant to intervene.
When asked about the brewing crisis in Perak, DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng said only that the matter would be resolved internally by the state chapter.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

'Public cautioned against saboteurs propagating racial issues to cause disharmony'@Sun Daily, 10 September 2019


10 Sep 2019 / 10:46 H.
PETALING JAYA: Malaysians have been urged not to take the bait of saboteurs who are out to instigate racial and religious strife by raising old and non-issues.
Universiti Malaysia Sarawak political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Jeniri Amir said Malaysians should not be swayed by non-issues raised over a directive issued last week.
The directive, on joint prayers, was issued by a committee to promote understanding and harmony among religions, under the National Unity and Integration Department on the advice of the Islamic Development Department (Jakim).
“We should not be influenced by certain groups of people, bigots and extremists who probably have their own motives and agenda, (and who) are not in tandem with the policies and the future of the country.
“From Sabah and Sarawak’s perspective, I think this is a non-issue. Why should we talk about matters that can offend other races and religions? In Sarawak in particular, we do not want to be seen offending other religions.”
In agreeing with Jeniri, Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Prof Sivamurugan Pandian said it was important for the government to issue a firm directive to curtail misinterpretation.
“There should not be misinterpretation because many parties and authorities who have the power to direct policies may misuse that for their personal gain,” he said.
“I’m afraid that could be used by anyone to make their own interpretation, which I think is unhealthy for a multi-ethnic society like ours.”
Malaysia Hindu Sangam president Datuk R.S. Mohan Shan said he felt “amused” by the non-issue.
“We are in a diverse country in harmony. So, what is the problem?”, he said, adding that there was nothing wrong in holding joint silent prayers.
“We have been doing silent prayers for so long.”
Malaysian Consultative Council of Buddhism, Christianity, Hinduism, Sikhism and Taoism exco member Sardar V. Harcharan Singh said: “We are trying to promote interfaith harmony and understanding. I am very surprised by this directive. It should be an individual right to choose whether to participate. It is good to have this kind of events that promote unity, harmony and understanding,” he said.

'PH Unfazed by UMNO-PAS Pact'@The Star, 10 September 2019


Monday, September 09, 2019

'Merdeka vs Malaysia Day? Analysts say nothing wrong with having both'@The Malay Mail, 7 September 2019


 

BY JERRY CHOONG

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KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 7 — The ongoing debate over why Malaysia effectively celebrates two national days is predicated on a misunderstanding of their significance, according to political observers.

While the apparent prominence given to Merdeka Day is seen by East Malaysians as an affront to Malaysia Day that marks the birth of the federation, the analysts pointed out that the former was a crucial moment in history that served to seed of what eventually became Malaysia.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Prof Sivamurugan Pandian said Malaysians should not view Merdeka Day and Malaysia Day as a dichotomy but strive to understand the interconnectedness of the two celebrations.

“With August 31, the Federation of Malaya could focus on the formation of Malaysia. It is a long six-year struggle, and I think it will be unfair to history,” he explained.

Officially, Merdeka Day on August 31, 1957 marks Malaya’s independence from the British, while Malaysia Day on September 16, 1963 was when the peninsula allied with Sabah, Sarawak and Singapore to create Malaysia. Singapore was expelled in 1965.

Until recently, however, Merdeka Day was considered the official national day, while Malaysia Day had only been a state holiday in Sabah and Sarawak as recently as 2010.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Prof Kartini Aboo Talib Khalid said Malaysia should be seen as a nation-state with two birthday celebrations.

“One can never get enough of two birthday celebrations, cakes and two national holidays. For both, National Day and Malaysia Day, the whole of Malaysia is celebrating the days. 

“We have to be clear that August 31 was a historic moment for Malaya declaring independence from Britain, while September 16 was the formation of Malaysia. The former is the birthday and the latter is a form of unity and anniversary,” she said.

When asked if Putrajaya should place the emphasis on Malaysia Day more, Kartini said there is no need to as only “a confused, inferior mind” would think this necessary.

“Those dates are historical through different paths and events. Each is rich with the evolution and narrative of states that structurally define a society’s biography. Moreover, both created unique federal-state relationships,” she said.

Universiti Malaysia Sarawak’s Prof Arnold Puyok shared a similar view. 

“There is no issue about celebrating both days; they show that our country is unique and shaped by different historical trajectories,” he told Malay Mail.

Others suggested, however, that the significance of Merdeka and Malaysia Day should be made clearer to illustrate that the latter was the country’s national day.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said the continued prominence given to Merdeka Day unsurprisingly upset East Malaysians.

A Sabah native, Oh said many in the Borneo states are regularly perplexed by why those in the peninsula do not place as much importance on September 16.

“It would be a better alternative to refer to August 31 as Independence Day, and September 16 as National Day, or Malaysia Day. That at least is a compromise solution,” he said.

Unimas Prof Jeniri Amir said the tussle was indicative of the dysfunctions in East-West relations over the decades, including the lack of adherence to the Malaysia Agreement 1963. 

Jeniri said that theoretically more significance ought to be placed on September 16, but suggested celebrations also be held in the peninsula instead of either Sabah or Sarawak as has been the case for the past decade or so.

“This way, the people in West Malaysia will be able to comprehend the importance of September 16. 

“As it stands, I think many do not feel the same way about that date, and vice-versa for Sabah and Sarawak when it comes to August 31, 1957,” he said.

 

Wednesday, September 04, 2019

'Hishammuddin calon terbaik Setiausaha Agung BN - penganalisis', Awani@4 September 2019

Hishammuddin calon terbaik Setiausaha Agung BN - penganalisis

Hishammuddin calon terbaik Setiausaha Agung BN - penganalisis
Ketiga-tiga pemimpin tertinggi parti komponen BN bersetuju Hishammuddin dilantik memegang jawatan Setiausaha Agung BN. - Gambar fail
KUALA LUMPUR: Ahli Parlimen Sembrong, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein merupakan calon terbaik untuk menggalas tugas sebagai Setiausaha Agung Barisan Nasional (BN), kata penganalisis politik, Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakob.

Hujah Dr Mohammad Tawfik, sebagai seorang ahli politik yang berpengalaman dan mempunyai hubungan yang baik dengan banyak pihak, Hishammuddin merupakan pilihan terbaik untuk jawatan tersebut dalam usaha BN memulihkan imej parti.

Beliau juga berpendapat, ketika ini BN memerlukan seorang pemimpin yang mudah diterima oleh pemimpin dan ahli-ahli parti komponen.

"Hishammuddin juga seorang pemimpin yang boleh berinteraksi dengan pemimpin-pemimpin pembangkang dan ini merupakan ciri-ciri seorang pemimpin yang BN perlukan.

"Dalam keadaan BN kini merupakan pembangkang dan mahu memulihkan keyakinan rakyat, pemimpin seperti Hishammuddin yang diterima oleh semua kaum sangat diperlukan.

"Oleh itu, usaha melantik beliau sebagai Setiausaha Agung BN merupakan satu langkah yang bijak dan tepat," katanya kepada Astro AWANI.
Ketokohan Hishammuddin, kata Dr Mohamad Tawfik, tidak boleh dipandang ringan oleh pemimpin-pemimpin UMNO dan juga pemimpin parti komponen BN.

Beliau berkata, pemimpin-pemimpin UMNO perlu belajar daripada kesilapan sebelum ini dan perlu memastikan ia tidak berulang lagi ketika usaha memulihkan BN sedang giat dijalankan.

"Jangan pentingkan diri sendiri, utamakan usaha memulih dan mengukuhkan BN dengan meletakkan pemimpin yang sewajarnya.

"Hishammuddin adalah pilihan tepat untuk jawatan Setiausaha Agung BN kerana beliau mempunyai pengalaman yang cukup luas dalam bidang politik," katanya lagi.

Bagi Prof Madya Dr Sivamurugan Pandian pula, Hishammuddin mempunyai watak dan skil komunikasi yang boleh membawa semua kaum untuk duduk bersama.

Katanya, sikap sederhana Hishammuddin sangat disenangi oleh ramai ahli politik tidak kira dari dalam BN ataupun parti lawan yang merupakan parti pemerintah.
"Hishammuddin mempunyai kebolehan untuk mencari kesepakatan dalam BN, walaupun mungkin ada kalangan pemimpin UMNO yang tidak menyukai pendekatan yang beliau gunakan.

"Kepada pemimpin-pemimpin ini, apa yang harus dilakukan ialah meletakkan kepentingan BN melebihi segalanya dan ketika ini, individu seperti Hishammuddin adalah yang paling layak untuk jawatan Setiausaha Agung BN.

"Dalam kedudukan semasa, personalti yang dimiliki oleh Hishammuddin mampu untuk memobilisasikan sokongan dari semua kaum," katanya kepada Astro AWANI.

Beliau juga berpendapat, pengalaman dan tradisi hubungan dengan pemimpin komponen ketika menggalas jawatan Ketua Pemuda UMNO mampu diteruskan oleh Hishammuddin jika mengalas jawatan itu.

"Cabaran yang bakal ditempuhi Hishammuddin jika dilantik memegang jawatan Setiausaha Agung BN ialah untuk memastikan parti itu menjadi gabungan pembangkang yang berfungsi dalam memainkan peranan semak dan imbang dengan efektif," katanya lagi.

Sebelum ini, portal berita Malaysia Gazette yang memetik sumber melaporkan, tiga pemimpin BN iaitu Presiden UMNO, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi; Presiden MIC, Tan Sri S. Vigneswaran; dan Presiden MCA, Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong telah mengadakan perjumpaan pada 27 Ogos lalu.

Menerusi perjumpaan tersebut, ketiga-tiga pemimpin tertinggi parti komponen tersebut bersetuju dengan perubahan jawatan dalam gabungan berkenaan dengan mencadangkan Hishammuddin dilantik memegang jawatan Setiausaha Agung BN.

Namun sumber dalaman BN memaklumkan kepada Astro AWANI, Zahid menawarkan jawatan tersebut ketika pertemuan empat mata antara beliau dengan bekas Naib Presiden UMNO itu di tingkat 30, hotel Seri Pacific, Kuala Lumpur baru-baru ini.

Ketika ini, jawatan Setiausaha Agung BN digalas oleh Ahli Parlimen Putrajaya Datuk Seri Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor yang juga Bendahari UMNO.

'Keazaman Politik Penting Untuk Capai Perpaduan Negara'@Sinar Harian, 4 September 2019


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