Shazwan Mustafa Kamal
The state seat is in Negri
Sembilan, with a sizeable 27 per cent Indians out of 20,472 registered voters.
Fifty-three per cent are Malays, while 18 per cent are Chinese. — Picture by
Hari Anggara
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KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 — At
a casual glance, the upcoming Rantau by-election seems to be a pretty
straightforward contest.
Both Pakatan Harapan (PH)
and Barisan Nasional (BN) have announced their candidates weeks ahead of the
March 30 nomination day, with polling set for April 13.
Representing PH is PKR’s
Datuk Dr S. Streram, who was previously denied entry into the nomination centre
when he ran during the 14th general election which ultimately led to Umno
acting president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan’s uncontested win. This was later nullified
by an Election Court.
The state seat is in Negri
Sembilan, with a sizeable 27 per cent Indians out of 20,472 registered voters.
Fifty-three per cent are Malays, while 18 per cent are Chinese.
A win for either coalition
won’t change anything in terms of political representation, as it is not a
federal parliamentary seat, and PH already controls 20 out of the 36 seats in
the state assembly.
But as PH licks its wounds
from two back-to-back by-election losses and as Umno searches for leadership in
order to steer the embattled opposition coalition BN, the timing of the Rantau
by-election could not have come at a more opportune moment.
Politicians and analysts
believe that the fight for the semi-urban state seat is crucial in terms of a
political standpoint, as it will potentially affect the futures of both
coalitions.
Rasah PKR branch chief
Ismail Ahmad feels it will be a tough contest for Dr Streram (pic), going
against a veteran like Mohamad in a state where the latter is considered a
household name.. — Picture by Firdaus Latif
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Who’s the underdog?
Sivamurugan Pandian,
political analyst with Universiti Sains Malaysia, believes that at the moment,
Dr Streram is the underdog in the race, as he is facing Mohamad, a
businessman-turned-politician who has held the seat for almost three terms and
was Negri Sembilan mentri besar from 2004 till GE14.
“PH is the underdog as Tok
Mat has served the constituency for almost three terms and was the MB as well.
He was well accepted in his constituency and developed the area too.
“As for Dr Streram, he is
the co-ordinator and will have to convince the voters he is the better choice
for the government of the day if that matters to the voters,” he told Malay
Mail.
For Umno, Sivamurugan said
that a win in Rantau will boost their moral legitimacy and strengthen Mohamad’s
position within the Malay party, and eventually pave the way for him to
officially take over the president’s role from the embattled Datuk Seri Ahmad
Zahid Hamidi.
“For BN, a win will boost
their moral legitimacy and strengthen Tok Mat’s position within party. Also,
the opposition solidarity may continue despite the fact PAS is not the
kingmaker here as how they were in Cameron Highlands and Semenyih,” he said,
referring to the voter breakdown in Rantau.
Rasah PKR branch chief
Ismail Ahmad feels it will be a tough contest for Dr Streram, going against a
veteran like Mohamad in a state where the latter is considered a household
name.
But he said PH’s campaign
on the state and local level will be to “debunk” claims that Mohamad was a
faultless MB, and show the latter’s administration had unaddressed
shortcomings.
“An outsider can come here
and focus on Mohamad’s past achievements, but we have been the opposition in
this state for a long time.
“We saw many weaknesses
which should have been resolved, but were not, such as the previous
government’s promise for low cost housing which was not delivered,” the Labu
state assemblyman told Malay Mail.
Ismail added that the
by-election will be an opportunity for PH to bury Mohamad’s political career
(should he lose) and with that, put a spanner in Umno’s leadership succession
plan.
“A loss will definitely
affect Umno,” he said.
Lim Teck Ghee, director of
Centre for Policy Initiatives, believes that although PH is the underdog in
this by-election, the stakes are higher for Umno/ BN.
“If Mohamad loses, he will
be on his way out and Umno will have to look for a replacement leader. A win
will see him holding on to his position, but he is still leader of a much
diminished party with only 37 MPs in Parliament.
“Even if he wins, he will
be faced with a possible further exodus of state and parliamentary members as
the pressure of 1MDB and other BN-related scandals continue; and the euphoria
of the marriage with PAS dies off,” he told Malay Mail.
Umno Youth chief Datuk
Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki told Malay Mail that the 'Tok Mat' brand, referring to
Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan (pic), in Rantau is more well-known than that of Umno,
which is something the party will rely on during campaigning. — Picture by
Firdaus Latif
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Getting the ‘right’
narrative across
But for Umno, the task is
quite clear — the party plans to cash in on Mohamad’s popularity and scandal-free
image in the state for a trifecta win, and with it send a message that the
party is not on its way out and that its alliance with PAS will secure the
Malay vote for future elections.
“He (Mohamad) has done a
lot for Rantau people. During my visit last Wednesday, I could see from the
interaction of people that they still love Tok Mat he is not only humble, he
never misses meeting up with the people, not just Muslims but Chinese and
Indians as well,” Umno Youth chief Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki told Malay
Mail.
Asyraf even admitted that
the “Tok Mat” brand in Rantau is more well-known than that of Umno, which is
something the party will rely on during campaigning.
“The Tok Mat factor is more
prominent than the party factor. They (constituents) would prefer to wear Tok
Mat’s T-shirt,” he said, referring to T-shirts of the Umno acting president
which were given out during GE14.
“For BN, we rely on Tok
Mat’s popularity and contribution,” he added.
And just like Semenyih, the
Umno man said that Rantau will be a referendum for voters to “reflect and
manifest their grievances” towards the PH government.
While BN’s by-election
message is clear, PH appears to be struggling to find one.
PH leader and Parti Pribumi
Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) strategist Datuk Rais Hussin said that PH has failed to
learn from their twin losses in Semenyih and Cameron Highlands, or to take heed
of the urgent need to explain to voters about why some manifesto promises have
yet to be delivered.
He lamented that till
today, PH has yet to improve on its communication strategy and has instead
allowed some ministers to make silly remarks about “flying cars”, in an
apparent jibe at Entrepreneur Development Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Redzuan Md
Yusof’s recent announcement that Malaysia will develop a flying car.
“Rantau is going to be
tough for PH, a 50-50 chance. Recent election results do not favour PH. People
on the ground have not felt the positive effects of our policies.
“People need to be
convinced and we have yet to establish a manifesto committee. In Semenyih, when
I talked to people. they say ‘we have trouble putting food on the table but you
are talking about piring terbang’,” he told Malay Mail.
Rais added that he was not
surprised PH lost Semenyih because the coalition lacked a proper narrative, and
still has not found one.
“When we are not doing
enough, the opposition’s narrative becomes the dominant narrative,” he said.
The Anwar factor?
All eyes will also be on
PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as he is expected to help the campaign
for Rantau where a win will be more symbolic, since he is now a Negri Sembilan
federal lawmaker in Port Dickson.
There were claims during
the Semenyih by-election that Anwar did not lend his full support to PPBM,
which has since been refuted by PKR.
But a win in Rantau would
add a feather to his cap and help convince critics that the prime
minister-in-waiting can mobilise support to get things done.
“This is Anwar’s first
challenge as PKR president. Let us give him a chance to showcase his
leadership, and he has also thrown his full support behind Dr Streram,” said
Rasah PKR branch chief Ismail.
Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at
the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said that Anwar’s critics
within PH would likely use the results of the Rantau by-election to question
Anwar’s leadership, should Dr Streram lose to Mohamad.
“A miraculous win, on the
other hand, would of course be beneficial to Anwar, as he similarly will not
let go of the opportunity to claim political credit and thereby display his
‘readiness’ to take over the premiership,” Oh said.
