Tuesday, April 22, 2014

'BN: Bertanding Atau Tidak Di Bukit Gelugor', Bernama, 22 April 2014

 



Fokus Berita Oleh Alan Ting

KUALA LUMPUR, (Bernama) -- Apakah Barisan Nasional (BN) akan meletakkan calon untuk pilihan raya kecil Bukit Gelugor berikutan kematian Karpal Singh, penyandang kerusi Parlimen itu?

BN secara tidak langsung telah membayangkan bahawa parti itu akan bertanding kerusi itu.

Setiausaha Agung BN, Datuk Seri Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor dipetik sebagai berkata terpulang kepada parti komponen BN, MCA untuk membuat keputusan lantaran menghormati persetujuan berhubung agihan kerusi.

Bagaimanapun, beberapa kumpulan pemikir dan ahli politik percaya BN perlu mempertimbangkan semula ura-ura untuk bertanding bagi kerusi itu memandangkan laluan untuk memenanginya amat sukar.

Sejumlah 74 peratus pengundi di kawasan Parlimen Bukit Gelugor adalah kaum Cina.

"Sukar sekali untuk BN terutama dengan undi simpati pengundi Pulau Pinang. Ini bermakna siapa sahaja yang bertanding di bawah tiket DAP pasti menang. Ini yang kami katakan sebagai limpahan simpati.

"Rasa simpati ini akan menjadi lebih kuat sekiranya waris mendiang, sebagai contoh, anak lelakinya, Ramkarpal dicalonkan," kata Ivanpal S. Grewal, Pengarah Eksekutif Institut Pembangunan dan Penyelidikan Sosio-Ekonomi (SEDAR), kumpulan pemikir parti Gerakan.

Mungkin ada baiknya jika BN tidak bertanding untuk kerusi itu dan membiarkan Ramkarpal atau sesiapa sahaja daripada DAP menang seperti apa yang berlaku apabila Perdana Menteri kedua, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein meninggal dunia pada tahun 1976.

Apabila Razak meninggal dunia secara mengejut pada 1976 dan kerusi Parlimen Pekan kosong, BN membuat keputusan untuk mencalonkan Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

Perasaan sedih yang menyelubungi seluruh negara apabila Razak meninggal dunia serta rasa hormat terhadap sumbangan besar ayahnya kepada pembangunan Malaysia menyebabkan Najib menang tanpa bertanding.

Beliau menjadi Ahli Parlimen pada usia muda 23 tahun.

"BN perlu lihat kembali perkara ini. Memandangkan kematian Karpal Singh begitu tragik sekali, mungkin BN tidak sepatutnya meletakkan sebarang calon dengan mengambil kira kepentingan negara.

"Keadaan ini berbeza sekali dengan pilihan raya kecil Kajang yang terpaksa diadakan angkara Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR)," katanya.

Karpal Singh, 74, terbunuh dalam kemalangan di Lebuh Raya Utara-Selatan berhampiran Gua Tempurung di Kampar, Perak Khamis lepas. Pembantu peribadinya, Michael Cornelius, turut terkorban dalam kemalangan itu.

Beberapa penganalisis politik turut berkongsi pendapat yang sama dengan menyatakan adalah lebih baik untuk BN memberi tumpuan kepada isu-isu lain dan berusaha mengukuhkan BN Pulau Pinang sebagai persediaan untuk pilihan raya umum akan datang.

"Jika anda tengok keputusan ketiga-tiga pilihan raya umum yang lepas, jelas sekali jumlah undi majoriti meningkat dengan banyaknya, lebih daripada 100 peratus.

"Pada tahun 2004, DAP menang dengan majoriti 1,261 undi, pada tahun 2008, ia menang dengan majoriti 21,015 sementara pada 2013, undi majoriti 42,706," kata penganalisis politik, Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, yang juga pensyarah kanan di Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM).

Menurut beliau, meskipun pilihan raya kecil Bukit Gelugor boleh mengukur tahap sokongan untuk BN, ia tidak akan menunjukkan banyak perubahan.

Lebih banyak masa diperlukan untuk BN menyiapkan diri berhadapan dengan cabaran lebih besar dalam Pilihan Raya Umum ke-14.

Berdasarkan senarai daftar pemilih 2013, terdapat 82,042 pengundi dengan 61,112 Cina, 11,880 Melayu, 8,660 India dan 390 kaum lain di Bukit Gelugor.

Kerusi parlimen ini mempunyai tiga kerusi Dewan Undangan Negeri iaitu Seri Delima, Paya Terubong dan Air Itam, yang kesemuanya dimenangi calon DAP.

Kebanyakan pengundi di kawasan pilihan raya itu terdiri daripada golongan profesional dan kelas pertengahan, terutamanya dari Minden Heights dan USM.

Bagaimanapun, sesetengahnya percaya BN perlu bertanding meskipun ia berdepan laluan sukar.

"Tanpa sangsi lagi DAP akan memenangi pilihan raya kecil itu. Bagaimanapun, BN perlu bertanding kerana sebagai parti politik takkan nak bagi kemenangan percuma?" kata Datuk Cheah See Kian, penganalisis politik yang berpangkalan di Pulau Pinang.

"Kalau beri kemenangan percuma kepada DAP, orang akan ketawakan BN. Sebagai parti politik, MCA boleh meletakkan seorang calon mudanya dan menyusun strategi. Menang atau kalah adalah perkara kedua," tambahnya.

Bagi Ahli Jawatankuasa Pusat MCA, Datuk Ti Lian Ker: "Memang Karpal Singh menang dengan majoriti 42,706 pada tahun 2013 dan 21,015 pada 2008. Bagaimanapun, memandangkan keadaan yang berubah-ubah dalam politik Malaysia, faktor popular bukan satu konsep statik."

Beliau memberi contoh sejarah Karpal Singh apabila pada tahun 2004, pemimpin DAP itu memenangi kerusi Parlimen Bukit Gelugor dengan undi kecil iaitu 1,261.

Bagaimanapun, pada 1999, Karpal Singh gagal mempertahankan kerusi Jelutong, yang dimenanginya untuk tempoh lima penggal berturut-turut dengan hanya 775 undi.

"Pada pilihan raya umum tahun 2008 dan 2013, BN-MCA masih memperoleh purata undi lebih 14,000 di sebalik majoriti lebih besar yang dimenangi DAP," kata Ti, dan menambah kata bahawa bertanding dalam pilihan raya kecil bukan sahaja tentang soal menang tetapi memberi peluang kepada barisan pelapis parti untuk bertanding.

-- BERNAMA

BN: To Contest Or Not In Bukit Gelugor, Bernama, 22 April 2014

 



By Alan Ting

KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama) -- Will Barisan Nasional (BN) contest in the Bukit Gelugor by-election after the parliamentary seat fell vacant following the death of its incumbent Karpal Singh?

BN has indirectly hinted that the party would likely contest the seat when its secretary-general Datuk Seri Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor said that it was up to BN's component MCA to decide as the coalition will honour the existing agreement on the seats.

However, some think tank and politicians believe BN should reconsider contesting the seat where 74 percent of the voters are Chinese with the odds very much against BN.

"The odds are very much against them especially with sympathy votes expected from Penangites which means anybody contesting under DAP's banner will definitely win. This is what we call sympathy surplus.

"This sympathy surplus will be much stronger if the next of kin of the late DAP national chairman is being fielded such as his son Ramkarpal," said Gerakan linked think tank Socio-Economic Development and Research Institute (SEDAR) Executive Director Ivanpal S. Grewal.

It would not be a bad idea for BN not to contest the seat and allow Ramkarpal or whoever from DAP to win like what happened when second Prime Minister Tun Abdul Razak Hussein passed away in 1976.

PRECENDENCE OF ALLOWING WALKOVER

Following the sudden demise of Razak in 1976 that left the Pekan seat vacant, the BN decided to field Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

The national outpouring of grief following Razak's death and the respect for his father s tremendous contributions to Malaysia's development saw Najib elected unopposed as Member of Parliament at the very young age of 23.

"BN should look at this precedence. Giving the tragic circumstances of Karpal Singh's death, maybe BN should not field a candidate at all with national interest in mind, unlike the forced and ill conceived Kajang state by-election engineered by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR)," he remarked.

Karpal Singh, 74, died in an accident at the North-South Expressway near Gua Tempurung, in Kampar, Perak last Thursday. His personal assistant, Michael Cornelius, was also killed.

Similarly, some political analysts believe it is better for BN to concentrate on other issues and work to strengthen Penang BN itself in preparation for the next general election.

"If you look at the past three general elections results for the seat, it clearly indicated the majority had increased tremendously, more than 100 percent. In 2004, DAP won with a 1,261 majority, in 2008 with a 21,015 majority and in 2013 with a 42,706 majority," said political analyst and senior lecturer at Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) Dr Sivamurugan Pandian.

He said though the by-election could serve as an avenue to gauge the support for BN, the Bukit Gelugor by-election would not provide any much changes and more time is needed to prepare BN to face bigger battle in Penang during the 14th General Election.

Based on the 2013 electoral roll, there were 82,042 voters with 61,112 being Chinese, 11,880 Malays, 8,660 Indians and 390 others.

All the three state seats under Bukit Gelugor - Seri Delima, Paya Terubong and Air Itam - were also won by the candidates from DAP.

Most of the voters in the constituencies come from professional and middle class, particularly from Minden Heights and USM.

STILL UPBEAT DESPITE THE ODDS

However, some still believe that the BN should contest regardless of the uphill battle that the party has to face.

"There is no doubt DAP will win the by-election. However, BN still has to contest because as a political party you cannot just give a walkover," said Penang based political analyst Datuk Cheah See Kian.

"If you give a walkover to DAP, the people will laugh at you. As a political party, MCA can field one of their young candidates and put the party's strategy to work. Win or lose is secondary," he added.

"No doubt that Karpal Singh won by 42,706 majority in 2013 and 21,015 in 2008. However, given much flux in the Malaysian politics, popularity is not a static concept," said MCA Central Committee member Datuk Ti Lian Ker.

In fact, he pointed Karpal Singh s history as a case in point, when in 2004, the DAP leader won Bukit Gelugor by a much smaller margin of 1,261 votes.

However, in 1999, he lost the Jelutong seat, which he had held for five consecutive terms by just 775 votes.

"In 2008 and 2013 general elections, BN-MCA still got the average of 14,000 over votes despite the bigger majority (obtained by the DAP)," Ti said, adding that contesting in the by-election is not just about winning but more on giving chance to the party second liners to contest.

-- BERNAMA

Monday, April 21, 2014

'Can Teng’s 2nd Go As State BN Chief Deliver Penang?', The Rakyat Post, 15 April 2014

 

Teng Medium
Teng Chang Yeow, who has been appointed Penang BN chief for the second time, has his work cut out to win the hearts of Penangites.
PENANG Barisan Nasional leaders felt numb from shock when the results of the 13th General Election tightened Pakatan Rakyat’s grip on Penang.
They may have not expected to wrest control of the state but seeing Pakatan Rakyat returned with more than two-thirds majority to form the state government for another term was still very hard for them to swallow.
DAP triumphed a convincing take-all in the 19 state seats it contested, Parti Keadilan Rakyat collecting 10, and PAS one, in the 40-seat state legislative assembly.
Pakatan also won 10 out of 13 parliamentary seats in the state, of which DAP won 7 and PAS, 3.
Then Penang BN chief Teng Chang Yeow, whose leadership people in the BN circle believed would see BN making inroads into some of Pakatan’s strongholds in the state, also lost to PKR’s Ong Chin Wen in the Bukit Tengah state constituency.
The 49-year-old, then national Gerakan secretary-general, had conceded that the people of Penang had rejected BN, took responsibility for the coalition’s poor performance and resigned as Penang BN chief.
Teng has since returned with renewed vigour, all ready to swing into action after his re-appointment as the Penang BN chief.
Work for Teng, had in fact started much earlier, when he was entrusted with the mandate to lead Penang Gerakan in September last year, taking over from Datuk Dr Teng Hock Nan, who did not seek re-election.
Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s decision to re-appoint Teng meant that the prime minister, who is also BN chairman, is confident Teng is in a better position now than before to lead the BN charge in GE14.
Najib appears to have high hopes that under Teng, BN would become an effective opposition in Penang. The coalition should now have better understanding of the aspirations of Penangites since the state is into its 6th year under the DAP-led Pakatan Rakyat government.
Wong Mun Hoe, head of Penang Gerakan Election Task Force, believed Teng
would be able to take the challenge and improve past shortcomings, with the co-operation of the head of other BN parties.
“It’s not the best time to be the BN head though,” said Wong, the former Pantai Jerejak state assemblyman.
Time was not on Teng’s side when he was first appointed to the post in April 2012, succeeding former Penang Chief Minister and former Gerakan president Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon.
He has all the right credentials to mount a challenge. He was a three-term assemblyman for the Padang Kota seat and had served as Tsu Koon’s political secretary, but having just over a year before BN had to face the voters again on May 5, 2013, is certainly is too short a time.
Given the anti-BN sentiment that was still strong among the majority of Chinese voters in Penang, it was really too much to expect BN to be returned to power.
Now he can continue to execute his plans from an early stage,” said Penang-based political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian.
Still, some political watchers think that Najib should have reappointed Teng much earlier to give the latter more time to prepare for the next national poll, due in 2018.
Analysts familiar with the Penang political scene think Teng  was a wise choice and they do not regard him as a recycle leader. They also believe Teng, an aggressive fighter, who can give BN a fighting chance in Penang, will act as a uniting force for demoralised BN leaders and members to counter their common political enemy.
It is common knowledge that some Penang Umno leader are keen to see Umno leading the state BN since the party won seats and Gerakan, as well as MCA and MIC, have no voice at all in the state legislative assembly.
Furthermore, Gerakan had “failed to lead BN” not once, but twice into victory.
“Teng is the best candidate. Umno cannot take the post, otherwise the party will be seen as greedy,” Prof James Chin of Monash University Malaysia, Selangor.
Sivamurugan also believed that Najib’s choice in Teng was to avoid a power tussle within BN component parties.
”That’s the last thing BN want to face now in Penang,” said the Universiti Sains Malaysia lecturer.
Trying to win the hearts of Penang voters is not an easy task. Penangites, generally, are happy with the present DAP-led state government.
They see chief minister Lim Guan Eng as having little baggage, practising good governance, thus having no good reason to return support to BN until now.
There are grouses over the usual housing shortage, traffic woes and business opportunities among the people, but all these are still not enough to change the present state government.
For BN, it has to offer something new and different to see a change in peoples’ mindset, and this is a big challenge.
Zubaidah Abu Bakar
Zubaidah Abu Bakar
*Seasoned journalist Zubaidah Abu Bakar takes a keen interest in Malaysia’s vibrant, and sometimes, dramatic political landscape.

Monday, April 14, 2014

'Crisis Brings Out The Best In Hisham', Sunday Star, 13 April 2014


'5 Tahun Kepimpinan Najib', Pena DrSiva, Utusan Malaysia, 10 April 2014


'Analysts Claim Alliances Can Split Party', The Rakyat Post, 11 April 2014

 

saifudin
PKR secretary-general Datuk Saifuddin Nasution Ismail has announced he is teaming up with party vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar and PKR strategist Rafizi Ramli for the party elections.

By Sean Augustin
KUALA LUMPUR
Forming alliances in the run-up to party elections could worsen the internal schism in the party, political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said, although PKR rejects the theory.
The Universiti Sains Malaysia professor said that it would have a negative impact on the party in the long run.
“It won’t solve the bickering, unless PKR comes together after the elections,” he told The Rakyat Post.
Sivamurugan was commenting on outgoing PKR secretary-general Datuk Saifuddin Nasution Ismail’s announcement that he was teaming up with vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar and PKR strategist Rafizi Ramli for the party elections.
PKR had been plagued with stories about Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim and PKR Deputy President Azmin Ali being at odds with each other.
Some quarters have claimed that the bickering led to the “Kajang Move” which would have seen de facto leader Anwar replace Abdul Khalid after the Kajang state seat was vacated.
Anwar, was however, barred from contesting after the Court of Appeal overturned his acquittal earlier last month for sodomising his aide in 2008.
Anwar’s wife, Datuk Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail subsequently replaced him as candidate and won the Kajang by-election.
Sivamurugan, however, said even if the divide in the party grew wider due to alliances formed, it would not be similar to what happened to Umno in 1987 which saw ‘Team A’ and ‘Team B’ created during its election and even led to a court case.
This was because unlike PKR, he explained, the factionalism in Umno came from the top.
Fellow political analyst Professor James Chin, meanwhile, pointed out that camps in political parties were a natural phenomenon and factions were something that could not be gotten rid of.
“It would still be there regardless of the announcement made.”
Chin said the reason Saifuddin made such an announcement was merely to inform supporters.
PKR Deputy Secretary-General Darell Leiking, meanwhile, said while it might look like a form of factionalism, it did not mean the party was divided.
With the party practising a one man, one vote system, the Penampang Member of Parliament explained that it was natural for people who felt that they could work together to form a group.
“It’s like in a classroom where you would have different cliques, but you would unite when competing with another classroom.”
He added that once the dust had settled after the election the “disappointed” and “exalted” sides would converge to face the Barisan Nasional.

Blog Archive