'Must there always be a Malay-Muslim candidate? Analysts say fears unfounded'@Malay Mail, 5 November 2019

 

R. Loheswar And Jerry Choong

Malay Mail5 November, 2019

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 5 — Political analysts have downplayed some quarters’ insistence for a Malay-Muslim candidate in the Tanjung Piai by-election, saying it is baseless for the majority demography to feel politically sidelined.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Kartini Aboo Talib Khalid even chided Islamist party Barisan Jemaah Islamiah Se-Malaysia (Berjasa) president Datuk Badhrulhisham Abdul Aziz for saying this was the reason he decided to contest the poll, calling it “preposterous”.

“It could be a way to stir provocation,” the professor told Malay Mail, disagreeing that Malay political power needs any restoration.

“After 1949, the newly formed Community Liaison Committee consisted of Malays, Chinese and Indians. The British endorsed Malaya to be a Malay-led plural society with power-sharing,” she related.

“This event was ill-perceived as Malay supremacy by most people. The political power still demands for power-sharing with the Malay-led plural society up until the present. Only those who are insecure believe said power is in decline,” she added.

Last week, Badhrulhisham was officially named as a candidate, after announcing he would contest to express his disappointment with Barisan Nasional (BN) for choosing to field MCA’s Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng instead of a Malay candidate.

The PAS ally and committee member of Islamist group Ikatan Muslimin Malaysia (Isma) claimed BN’s move was not in line with the aspirations of Malay-Muslims, and alleged Wee’s candidacy will shrink Malay political power and diminish Islam’s status.

This is despite Pakatan Harapan (PH) fielding a Malay candidate, Karmaine Sardini, in addition to independent candidate Faridah Aryani Abdul Ghaffar — making the total of Malay candidates three altogether.

Similarly, Universiti Sains Malaysia’s (USM) Sivamurugan Pandian said it is needless to fear the perceived declining Malay political power when it comes to Tanjung Piai, as MCA will still look to allies Umno and PAS to protect Malay power.

“In fact, it is Wee’s role as well to protect the interest of the Malays as stipulated under the Federal Constitution,” he said.

 

Why the insistence for a Malay-Muslim candidate?

In the run-up to Nomination Day, Umno grassroots members also lobbied for BN to field a Malay candidate either from Umno or PAS, rather than MCA which has traditionally contested the seat.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Azmi Hassan said since Malay voters comprise the majority in Tanjung Piai, it was a strong enough reason for either party to field a Malay candidate.

“With internal bickering within Pakatan purportedly between Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia and DAP, plus the Umno-PAS cooperation, the justification to pressure for a Malay candidate seems logical.

“With Malay voters comprising the majority, this factor alone is enough for some quarters including Umno, Berjasa and Bersatu, to clamour for a Malay candidate,” the professor added.

 

According to the latest electoral roll, Malays made up 57 per cent of the voters, followed by ethnic Chinese (42 per cent), and ethnic Indians (1 per cent).

However, Azmi felt it was a good move for BN to take another chance with a MCA candidate to garner votes from the Chinese community, as it would be a tall order for it to do so otherwise.

The move to field Wee, who served as Tanjung Piai MP from 2008 until 2018, can also be smart move by BN, as Sivamurugan said it can campaign on his track record.

“The majority of voters [in the constituency] are Malays and they want a lawmaker from the majority ethnic group. However, under Muafakat Nasional, BN will have to use his record, which never sidelined Malays during his period as MP.

“This will also show to others that the Umno-PAS alliance did not sideline the other BN component members,” Sivamurugan said, noting that the seat was held by Umno from its creation in 2003 until 2008 when it was passed to MCA.

 

Will we see the call for Malay-Muslims to continue?

When asked if it will become a trend to see calls for more Malay candidates to be fielded in future elections, Kartini said it is a possibility but one which she does not relish.

“Pakatan Harapan and Umno are not exactly on the same page even though both have Malay candidates competing for the seat. In some sense, they have differing principles, objectives, and even ideological differences.

“Still, it is to be expected that both will try their best to persuade voters when approaching them, no matter what,” Kartini said.

Sivamurugan also predicted the trend of calling for more Malay-Muslim candidates would continue, in light of the Umno-PAS alliance.

“The negotiation of seats will see how compromise and sacrifice are key in this new alliance. And speaking of BN’s chances in Tanjung Piai, it is anyone’s win, for now.

“If Umno can pacify its members and avoid protest votes, PAS can convince their members to support Jeck Seng, and if the Chinese voters also indicate their displeasure towards Pakatan over national issues, Wee may stand a good chance,” Sivamurugan said.

 

His fellow USM colleague Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid felt Berjasa stands no chance at winning the seat, but said its presence in the by-election could instead tip the balance in either sides’ favour.

“They are obviously after the 2,962 votes that went PAS’ way in 2018, votes that stand a good chance of being ‘wasted’ with PAS being out of the fray,” he said.

Fauzi said PH is defending a slim 524-majority, with some Malays abandoning it over its perceived failure to defend Malay ground.

“Berjasa’s foray this time round is not unlike its candidacy in Alor Setar in 2013, when its 3,530 votes actually delivered the seat to PKR’s candidate Gooi Hsiao Leung who defeated MCA’s Chor Chee Heung with a 1,873 majority.

“Berjasa votes could well be regarded as protest Malay votes against their pleas to BN to allow a Malay to represent the coalition this time,” he said.

Kartini also said that the six-cornered fight in Tanjung Piai is likely to lead to division instead of unity.

“That is also the beauty of democracy. Another reason could be that it is a strategy to cover the big voting gap, and perhaps one or two candidates will withdraw towards the end,” she said.

 

 

'PRK Tanjung Piai Medan Uji Kesetiaan Dalam Gabungan PH'@Sinar Harian, 5 November 2019

'Mahathir: Only PH Presidential Council Can Decide Who Is PM, Not The Opposition'@Edge, 4 November 2019

'Tanjung Piai poll an acid test for BN’s multiracialism amid Malay-Islamist union with PAS'@Malay Mail, 2 November 2019

 

Saturday, 02 Nov 2019

BY KENNETH TEE

 

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 2 ― The Tanjung Piai by-election will test the credibility of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) continued claims of moderation and multiculturalism following its vicarious partnership with Islamist PAS, analysts predicted.

The formal cooperation between BN lynchpin Umno and PAS to create a Malay-Muslim political movement has fuelled concerns of increased racial and religious polarisation in the country.

One analyst noted that ethnocentric politics was among reasons for BN’s general election defeat and said the November 16 poll could force the coalition to choose between principles and expediency.

 

“For BN, what's at stake is the politics of multiracialism that so long guided it to victories in successive elections from 1974 to 2013,” Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid told Malay Mail.

On September 14, Umno and PAS formalised their political pact with a Muafakat Nasional charter to symbolise the end of their decades-old political enmity and push for a Malay-Islamist front.
Ahmad Fauzi said BN’s decision to go with MCA’s Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng was a positive sign for centrist politics, but said the coalition should have gone with a young and new candidate to put up a proper fight against the incumbent Pakatan Harapan.
Whether the 3,000-odd voters who backed for PAS in the 14th general election could bring themselves to vote a non-Muslim candidate will indicate whether this gathering of formerly bitter rivals was workable, he said.
“We must bear in mind of PAS's Islamist rhetoric of not favouring a non-Muslim to act as a guardian of Muslim affairs,” he said.
In January this year, PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang reportedly said Muslims must vote for a Muslim candidate over a non-Muslim regardless of political affilations.
Unhelpfully for the Islamist party, the only Muslim candidate for the Tanjung Piai by-election so far is Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) Karmaine Sardini.
“Tg Piai will be a test case of whether multi-racial politics fits in with the 'new' BN as powered by the Umno-PAS newly found cooperation,” Ahmad Fauzi added.
For political analyst Azmi Hassan, the by-election would also be an assessment of the ties between the ideologically different PH allies.
Azmi highlighted the recent public confrontations between DAP and Bersatu and said these would demonstrate if their supporters were willing to forgive and forget.
“It's no secret that the seat won by Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia in the 14th general election was a result of DAP’s influence in the constituencies ie via the 46 per cent Chinese voters,” he said.
While Azmi did not cite any particular row, Bersatu Youth chief Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman openly threatened to attack DAP unless the ally party took action against a lawmaker for criticising Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
“So it will be interesting to see if DAP will throw its full weight during the campaign to support the Bersatu candidate.
“On the other hand Umno and PAS also need to prove that their cooperation can be translated into votes in the by-election and this is the first real test both parties are facing since the charter was formalised several weeks ago,” he added.
Azmi suggested that BN’s decision to field a non-Malay was to counter perceptions that that PAS-Umno union would dominate the alliance and demonstrate that this could still result in a positive multiracial arrangement.
He further suggested that the decision to go with Wee was made despite being a risk, as it would have been easier to pitch an Umno leader to local supporters.
“No doubt an Umno candidate is a safer choice as it will gain support from the grassroots,” Azmi said.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia associate professor Kartini Aboo Talib Khalid said Tanjung Piai would be difficult for PH due to recent events.
“Several DAP members are currently under investigation for alleged links to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam terrorist group, thus the party’s image is no longer attractive to most Malay voters.
“And the Malays really cherish the alliance between Umno and PAS,” she said of the dominant Malay ethnic group comprising around 57 per cent with the winning candidate needing another small percentage to clinch the seat.
On whether the by-election result could be an indicator of how PH will fare in seats in won marginally, both Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani and Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Sivamurugan Pandian disagreed.
They noted that the dynamics of by-elections were significantly different from national polls or those that could result in a change of power; as Tanjung Piai would not alter the balance of power, they said voters could vote according to short-term sentiments.
PH previously lost three by-elections in a row this year ― two state seats and one parliamentary seat ― before managing to secure a victory in the latest one that was held in Sandakan in May 2019.
Aside from the PH and BN candidates, independent Opposition party Gerakan is also fielding its 38-year old deputy secretary-general Wendy Subramaniam.
The November 16 by-election was triggered after incumbent, the late Datuk Dr Md Farid Md Rafik, died of heart complications on September 21.
Dr Md Farid won the seat in the previous general election after he defeated Wee and PAS’s Nordin Othman in a three-way contest.
The Tanjung Piai constituency is a mixed seat comprising 57 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and 1 per cent Indians that made up 53,528 registered voters.
The seat has been traditionally contested by MCA and DAP since 2004. In 2018, DAP ceded the seat to Bersatu to contest under its PH campaign.

 

'Penganalisis Politik Jangka PH hadapi Tugas Sukar Di Tanjung Piai'@Sinar Harian, 3 November 2019

'No hope but Tanjung Piai outing chance for Gerakan to test the waters, say analysts'@Malay Mail, 1 November 2019

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 1 — Independent Opposition party Gerakan is unlikely to stop the two-horse race for Tanjung Piai but could use the by-election to gauge voter appetite for its intended role as a “third force” in Malaysian politics, according to observers.

Predicting the by-election to purely be a contest between the ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) and what remains of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, one said Gerakan was still not ready to be a credible alternative.

Political analyst Azmi Hassan said Gerakan needed more time to establish itself as an independent party, particularly as it is still seen as a Chinese entity despite being superficially multiracial.

The perception also meant Gerakan would be crowded out by DAP and MCA.

“Gerakan to be reckoned as the third force based on Tg Piai is quite bold since I believe the Gerakan candidate will not be a major factor to split vote between BN and PH,” Azmi told Malay Mail.

Gerakan’s independence could also be a liability, he added, as the party would not have the resources to offer voters much in return for their support.

For Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, the choice of Tanjung Piai for Gerakan’s debut outing as an independent party was poorly conceived.

He pointed out that the Johor federal constituency was far from the party’s base in the north.

“Its past successes were achieved as part of BN. Its strength was concentrated in pockets of non-Malay strongholds especially Penang,” he told Malay Mail.

He said Gerakan would also be hampered in Malay majority areas due to Gerakan president Datuk Dominic Lau’s allegedly disparaging remarks about Islamic religious schools in January 2017.

The analyst said the Malay community has not forgiven Lau for this.

“Johor has one of the most organised state Islamic religious curriculums in the country,” he said.

On Monday, Gerakan unexpectedly announced deputy secretary-general Wendy Subramaniam’s candidacy for the Tanjung Piai by-election, the party’s first foray into such a contest since it abandoned the BN coalition after the general election last year.

Lau said the poll would solidify Gerakan’s future as a political “third force” as it repositioned itself as an alternative to Malaysians.

Gerakan is banking on Wendy, a 38-year-old lawyer from Johor, to provide a local boost to its chances but Sivamurugan Pandian, political analyst with Universiti Sains Malaysia, said the party will find it difficult to set itself apart.

He said the party may have found misplaced confidence to contest by virtue of its previous success in neighbouring Simpang Renggam.

“Gerakan will be joined by other independents as well, with the assumption that it can benefit from disillusioned voters of both coalitions.

“However, at Tanjung Piai, it is still a fight between PH and BN,” he said.

Sivamurugan then suggested that Gerakan’s entry could simply be to remind Malaysians of its continued existence.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia associate professor Kartini Aboo Talib Khalid and Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani both said Gerakan’s entry could provide an outlet for voters disenchanted with both PH and BN.

Azizuddin went as far as saying that Gerakan could even manage an upset given enough protest votes and a sufficiently low turnout.

“So it is still everyone’s seat to win,” he said.

PH is fielding 66-year-old Karmaine Sardini from Bersatu while BN is going with former Tanjung Piai MP, Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng, 55.

The Election Commission has set November 2 as Nomination Day and November 16 as polling day for the Tanjung Piai parliamentary by-election.

The by-election was triggered after incumbent, the late Datuk Dr Md Farid Md Rafik, died of heart complications on September 21.

Dr Md Farid won the seat in the previous general election after he defeated Wee and PAS’s Nordin Othman in a three-way contest.

The Tanjung Piai constituency is a mixed seat comprising 57 per cent Malays, 42 per cent Chinese and 1 per cent Indians.

The seat has been traditionally contested by MCA and DAP since 2004. In 2018, DAP ceded the seat to Bersatu to contest under its PH campaign.

 

'Calon BN penentu peluang rampas semula kerusi Tanjung Piai'@Sinar Harian, 30 Oktober 2019

 

NURHIDAYAH HAIROM | | 30 Oktober 2019

SHAH ALAM - Barisan Nasional (BN) mampu merampas semula kerusi Parlimen Tanjung Piai bergantung kepada calon yang akan diletakkan pada Pilihan Raya Kecil (PRK) November ini.
Penganalisis politik, Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian berkata, meskipun Pakatan Harapan (PH) telah mengumumkan calon lebih awal ia tidak memberi kelebihan kepada parti itu kerana yang penting adalah siapa lawannya.
Menurutnya, PH kini bergantung kepada strategi untuk memastikan Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) dapat mempertahankan kerusi tersebut memandangkan mereka hanya memperolehi kemenangan tipis pada Pilihan Raya Umum (PRU) lepas.
"Bagi saya, apa yang berlaku banyak bergantung kepada pengundi luar dan undi protes, jadi kemenangan akan berpihak kepada calon yang dapat memastikan pengundi luar balik dan menyokong mereka serta memperolehi undi-undi protes yang dibuat pada PRU14," katanya kepada Sinar Harian.
Ditanya adakah calon yang bakal diletakkan oleh Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan) mampu memberi persaingan kepada BN dan PH, beliau berkata, PRK Tanjung Piai masih dilihat sebagai pertembungan BN dan PH.
Katanya, Tanjung Piai merupakan kubu kuat BN bagaimanapun BN perlu meletakkan calon yang sesuai dan memastikan tidak ada sabotaj dalaman untuk merampas semula kerusi tersebut daripada Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu).
"Saya rasa (meletakkan calon Melayu) mungkin strategi terbaik untuk menang balik kerusi tersebut walaupun tradisinya kerusi MCA. BN boleh cuba gunakan Muafakat Nasional yang boleh dizahirkan di kawasan Tanjung Piai," katanya

'Malay Unity And The Bangsa Malaysia Dream', The Edge, 21 October 2019

'Automatic Voter Registration Soon'@The Star, 16 October 2019

'Calon UMNO Lebih Sesuai'@Sinar Harian, 14 Oktober 2019

'Elak Ketirisan Proses Bantuan'@Sinar Harian, 4 Oktober 2019

'Pengguna sosial tidak setuju calon pilihan raya usia 18 tahun'@Sinar Harian, 3 Oktober 2019

 

KHAIRIL ANWAR MOHD AMIN | | 3 Oktober 2019

SHAH ALAM - Majoriti pembaca Sinar Harian tidak bersetuju dengan cadangan parti-parti politik kini boleh meletakkan calon berusia 18 tahun bertanding dalam pilihan raya bermula dengan Pilihan Raya Kecil(PRK) Tanjung Piai, Johor pada 16 November depan.

Tinjauan dilakukan Sinar Harian menerusi laman sosial Facebook dibuka sejak pagi semalam menerima undian netizen sebanyak 12,894 dengan 86 peratus daripada pembaca menolak cadangan manakala 14 peratus bersetuju.

Di ruangan komen, pengguna Noraini Wahab berpendapat, "Sepatutnya usia 18 tahun utamakan pelajarannya dahulu ke peringkat tinggi, baru boleh dapatkan pengetahuan berpolitik untuk membangunkan negara."

Bagi pengguna Yuss Soleh, dia membangkang penuh cadangan itu kerana merasakan usia lingkungan remaja itu belum cukup matang untuk berpolitik, apatah lagi memikul tanggungjawab sebagai wakil rakyat.

"Ini akan menjadikan negara lagi cepat musnah...Umur belum cukup matang walau ada kelayakan akademi...Elok bermula dengan menjadi ahli biasa dulu...Ramai lagi yang veteran."

Seorang lagi pengguna, Puma Jaguar pula mempersoalkan tahap pendedahan seorang remaja seawal usia 18 tahun dalam bidang politik dan pengetahuan dalam selok-belok pentadbiran dan perhubungan awam.

"Dengan usia begitu muda, sejauh mana pendedahan mereka dalam bidang politik dan selok belok pengetahuan dalam aspek pentadbiran negara serta perhubungan awam?"

Sementara itu, penganalisis politik dari Universiti Sains Malaysia(USM), Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian berkata, keputusan tinjauan secara atas talian itu menunjukkan tahap penerimaan masyarakat negara ini terhadap sistem undi pilihan raya umur 18 tahun ke atas diamalkan di seluruh dunia belum memberangsangkan.

Menurutnya, pihaknya melihat tindakan Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) membenarkan calon berusia 18 tahun ke atas bertanding pada PRK Parlimen Tanjung Piai sebagai persediaan awal bagi menyuburkan kesedaran berpolitik dalam kalangan belia negara ini.

"SPR ada menyatakan terdapat proses pindaan undang-undang perlu dilaksana kerajaan bagi membolehkan pengundi muda berusia 18 tahun ke atas diberi hak mengundi pada pilihanraya akan datang.

"Saya fikir langkah SPR membenarkan calon berusia 18 tahun ke atas bertanding pada PRK kali ini adalah inisiatif awal agensi itu menyuburkan budaya cakna politik dalam kalangan golongan belia sekaligus menunaikan tanggungjawab mengundi.

"Soal sama ada calon remaja itu matang atau tidak bukan isu penting, sebaliknya semua pihak termasuk masyarakat setempat harus mencari jalan meningkatkan literasi politik dalam kalangan belia bagi menyuburkan amalan demokrasi negara," katanya.

 

'Calon 18 tahun bertanding dalam pilihan raya: Persediaan berdepan revolusi sistem demokrasi'@Bernama, 2 Oktober 2019

 

KUALA LUMPUR, 2 Okt -- Keputusan membolehkan individu berusia 18 tahun bertanding dalam pilihan raya, bermula dengan Pilihan Raya Kecil (PRK) Parlimen Tanjung Piai, Johor November depan dilihat sebagai persediaan awal untuk berdepan revolusi sistem demokrasi di negara ini.

Penganalisis politik dari Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian berkata walaupun nampak janggal individu berusia 18 tahun dibenarkan menjadi calon, itu mungkin cara SPR mahu melihat tahap penerimaan semua pihak berkaitan perkara berkenaan.

"Saya tidak rasa keputusan SPR ini sesuatu yang tergesa-gesa, walaupun isu pendaftaran pengundi (penurunan had umur mengundi dari 21 tahun hingga 18 tahun) belum dimuktamadkan.

“Barangkali, SPR mahu melihat reaksi peralihan ke arah umur 18 tahun dengan membenarkan calon muda ini terlebih dahulu bertanding, memandangkan kelayakan mengundi ada proses perundangan," katanya ketika dihubungi Bernama di sini hari ini.

Semalam, Pengerusi Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) Datuk Azhar Azizan Harun mengumumkan mana-mana parti politik yang bertanding dalam PRK Tanjung Piai pada 16 Nov ini boleh meletakkan calon berusia 18 tahun sejajar dengan Pindaan Perkara 47 Perlembagaan Persekutuan yang diwartakan pada 10 Sept lepas.

Namun Azhar berkata pengundi berusia 18 tahun tidak boleh mengundi dalam PRK tersebut kerana pelaksanaannya masih belum dikuatkuasakan.

Mengulas lanjut Sivamurugan berkata, bagaimanapun calon muda yang bakal bertanding perlu diingatkan bahawa kerja mentadbir negara bukanlah sekadar mencuba-cuba tetapi satu tanggungjawab besar.

"Saya percaya ada sebahagian calon muda ini yang lebih bertanggungjawab daripada golongan dewasa yang bersifat provokasi dan beremosi," tambahnya.

Sementara itu, penganalisis politik dari Universiti Islam Antarabangsa Malaysia (UAIM) Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmod berkata tiada masalah untuk meletakkan calon berusia 18 tahun walaupun tempoh mendaftar sebagai pengundi belum dimuktamadkan.

Menurutnya perubahan membenarkan calon muda bertanding dilihat sebagai keputusan yang berani dan komprehensif memandangkan golongan tersebut mempunyai potensi mengatasi calon lebih tua kerana faktor iltizam yang tinggi serta mempunyai tenaga untuk berkhidmat sebagai wakil rakyat.

Dalam pada itu, presiden Majlis Belia Malaysia (MBM) Jufitri Joha pula berpendapat calon berusia 18 tahun yang bertanding perlu diraikan memandangkan ia adalah laluan kepada mereka menjadi wakil bagi golongan umur tersebut di Parlimen kelak.

"Walaupun proses kebenaran mengundi mengambil masa, namun kita patut benarkan calon umur 18 tahun ini bertanding dahulu. Apa pun, ia bergantung kepada persetujuan parti, kesediaan dan kelayakan calon muda tersebut serta kelulusan daripada pegawai pengurus pilihan raya," katanya.

Sementara itu, di Kota Bharu, Presiden Pertubuhan Suara Kelantan Darul Naim (Suara Kelantan) Isham Sharuddin berkata, senario ini amat menarik untuk di ikuti lebih-lebih lagi ini julung kali calon berusia 18 tahun boleh bertanding.

Beliau berkata perkembangan itu menunjukkan sistem demokrasi di negara ini semakin sihat apabila golongan muda diberi ruang untuk bersama-sama menyuarakan suara serta hak mereka.

Katanya pandangan mereka semestinya banyak perbezaan dengan golongan yang lebih dewasa malah lebih dekat dengan anak muda.

"Bagi pihak Suara Kelantan, saya amat berbesar hati apabila Suara Anak muda diberi ruang oleh pihak kerajaan untuk terlibat secara langsung dan lebih menjurus dalam sistem demokrasi di negara ini," katanya.

-- BERNAMA

'Budget Card Could Be Played Up'@The Star, 30 September 2019

'Best to set date for transfer to Anwar: Analysts'@Sun Daily, 24 September 2019

SUN DAILY

Best to set date for transfer to Anwar: Analysts

Cindi Loo /

24 Sep 2019 / 15:24 H.

 

PETALING JAYA: The best way forward for Malaysia and Pakatan Harapan is for Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad to firm up a date to pass the baton to PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (pix), political analysts said.

This would ensure a smooth transition in leadership, they said. Assoc Prof Dr Jeniri Amir of Universiti Malaysia Sarawak said Pakatan Harapan has to abide by the promise made before the last general election for Anwar to take over.

“This will create a certainty which is important not only for domestic politics but also investor confidence,” he told theSun yesterday in response to Anwar’s statement during an interview with Bloomberg that he expected to take over some time in May 2020.

Jeniri said the question whether PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali or his counterpart in Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir would become prime minister was irrelevant.

“Who is the president of PKR? It’s Anwar, so it’s a clear cut case. For anyone else to claim the position is nonsensical,” he said.

Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said while Anwar would like to take over in May 2020, both he and Mahathir would have to come to a final decision to ensure a smooth transition, like how Mahathir passed the baton to Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2003.

He said Azmin and Mukhriz’s names did not crop up during the 14th general election.

“Both names only came up when cracks began to appear in PKR. Mukhriz appeared as an alternative but Mahathir has always said it would be Anwar.”

 

'Perlu Campur Tangan Orang Tengah'@Berita Harian, 21 September 2019

'After charter signing, analysts say takes more than rural Malay voters for Umno-PAS to win polls'@Malay Mail, 17 September 2019

 

Published on 17 September 2019

BY DANIAL DZULKIFLY

 

 KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17 — As Umno and PAS formalise their political pact with a charter on Saturday, political analysts said that the two parties would still need present a “holistic package” to attract non-Malays to support their Malay-Islamist union.

They said the two former rivals cannot just bank on Malay-Muslim voters in rural seats, but also convince the minorities and their own allies, before they could think about unseating Pakatan Harapan (PH) from Putrajaya in the 15th general election (GE15).

“Depending on rural Malays, will not help them to win federal power. As for now, Umno-PAS will have to gather support via Barisan Nasional-PAS in order to win the non-Malays’ support,” Universiti Sains Malaysia's political analyst Sivamurugan Pandian told Malay Mail.
“We know it’s divided between Malay and non-Malay voters, yet Umno-PAS might have to create a new package for the coming general election as a supplement to the charter that comprises the needs, demands and mindset of all Malaysians with Malay-Islam as the base as stipulated in our Constitution.”

The professor also said he expects to see an intense fight across Malay-majority seats in the run-up to the next general election that has to be called by 2023.

“Provided seat allocation are not challenged or sabotaged, we will see intense fights in some states. Most importantly, both have to convince voters at the grassroots level to vote for their candidate, regardless from BN or PAS,” he said.

Umno and Barisan Nasional suffered a shocking defeat during the 14th general election, while PAS became worse off compared to when it had joined Pakatan Rakyat, which then became PH.

Now, they are eyeing 119 Malay-majority seats in Peninsular Malaysia, with an agreement to not contest in the same seat.

In the last elections, both parties had a combined popular vote of some 4.3 million out of 11.6 million registered voters in the 14th general election (GE14).

Both parties are reported to have roughlt 70 per cent of the Malay votes, compared to only 30 per cent for PH.

“Even though Umno-PAS might have enough seats from peninsula, the new deal should also look for a formula to include Sabah and Sarawak. I’m uncertain at this point if it’s enough to win federal because it may include protest vote and class factor as well, besides race and religion,” he said.

Meanwhile Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s analyst Azmi Hassan predicted that Umno and PAS could rally up to 96 seats, which may prove to be a formidable challenge to PH.

“Taking stock of 47 seats Umno won in peninsula plus the seven in Sabah and also two by MIC and one by MCA, which was won with Umno's support. So in total Umno has 57 seats. With PAS having 18 seats this would make a total of 75 seats that can be secured by both parties come GE15.

“Based on GE14 results, there are at least 21 Parliamentary seats where the number of votes gained by Umno and PAS were more than what PH received.

“The 96 seats are not enough to form a government, but these are considered secured seats under the Umno-PAS alliance,” he said.

However, Azmi also agreed that the pact needs to appeal to a broader audience if they wish to effectively form the next federal government.

He also pointed out that the Umno-PAS coalition could revert several state government into their control, based on GE14 results.

“Using similar assumptions, there are 45 extra state seats that can be easily won by Umno and PAS, with Selangor and Penang topping the list with nine seats, Kedah and Perak with eight seats respectively, Johor with six seats, Melaka and Negri Sembilan with two each and one seat in Perlis seat.

“With that figures Kedah and Perak is as good as gone for PH meanwhile for Neeri Sembilan and Melaka, PH looks very shaky and can go either way,” he said.

However, these numbers could be adversely affected by newer voters coming into play in GE15, the analysts suggested.

Political analyst Hoo Ke Ping said if GE15 were to take place in 2023, there will be an additional 7 million new voters ― with 6.3 million of them being Malays.

For Hoo, based on the current political and social issues that have purportedly caused uneasiness among the Malay community, they might find Umno-PAS as a viable alternative to PH.

“Mind you, most of these voters are in the rural area. Many perceived that the current PH government does not priorities the needs of the Malay community.

“With employment being cut across the board, lack of a holistic financial and economic policies to help the nation grow, this could negatively affect PH.

“Many will revert back to PAS and Umno, the latter of which many still regarded as the traditional defender of the Malay community who have repeatedly upheld public sector jobs for Malays,” he said.

However, Azmi said that both coalitions would have to work hard in the next few years to woo the new generation of voters, who will likely determine the outcome of GE15.

“I do believe that the 18 to 21-years-old voters effect will be far much greater compared to the Umno-PAS alliance as votes gained by both parties from their core supporters is already saturated.

“Umno and PAS need to reach out to this new range of voters and must work really hard to convince that their alliance is good for the younger voters,” he said.

 

 

'Piagam Muafakat Nasional Sukar Difahami Rakyat'@Berita Harian, 17 September 2019

Sila baca pandangan sepenuhnya tanpa hanya melihat kepada tajuk berita semata-mata.

Malaysian Nanban@17 September 2019

'Hala tuju Piagam Muafakat Nasional masih samar - penganalisis politik'@Bernama, 16 September 2019

 

Tarikh kemaskini: 16/09/2019

Oleh Mohd Faizal Hassan

KUALA LUMPUR, 16 Sept -- Piagam Muafakat Nasional, perjanjian kerjasama politik yang dimeterai UMNO-PAS Sabtu lepas, membuka satu lagi episod baharu dalam agenda politik negara, yang pastinya mengundang pelbagai reaksi dari kalangan pemerhati politik yang benar-benar berminat untuk mengetahui halatujunya.

Ada yang berpendapat ia bakal menjadi satu lagi retorik politik jika intipati dan pelaksanaannya tidak dijelaskan dengan baik dan tepat; bukan sahaja kepada khalayak yang hadir sewaktu majlis berlangsung, tetapi juga kepada masyarakat umum yang pastinya ingin tahu manfaat dan kebaikan yang boleh diharapkan daripada piagam itu.

Penganalisis politik dari Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian berkata beliau melihat akan wujud dilema pasca piagam itu memandangkan ia menitikberatkan isu-isu yang berkaitan dengan kaum, Raja dan Perlembagaan.

“Ia mungkin berdepan dengan cabaran dalam meyakinkan sokongan pengundi muda, kelas pertengahan selain cabaran mendapatkan sokongan dari Sabah dan Sarawak dalam mengambil kira faktor agama, kaum dan kelas masyarakat,” katanya kepada Bernama.

Perjanjian kerjasama politik yang dikenali sebagai Piagam Muafakat Nasional itu dimeterai oleh Parti Umno dan PAS sempena Himpunan Penyatuan Ummah, yang disempurnakan oleh kedua-dua presiden parti, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi dan Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang pada hari Sabtu lepas.

Piagam berkenaan adalah satu dokumen terperinci menggariskan prinsip asas kerjasama, rasional, struktur dan modus operandi kerjasama dirangka menerusi Jawatankuasa Induk dan Jawatankuasa Teknikal, yang masing-masing dianggotai 11 dan lima pemimpin bagi setiap parti.

Ia bakal memperincikan jawatankuasa berkaitan yang akan melaksana dan merealisasikan kerjasama pada peringkat pusat, negeri sehingga peringkat akar umbi selain satu tata kelola kerja bagaimana kedua-dua parti bergerak daripada sekarang hingga ke pilihan raya umum akan datang.

Dalam pada itu, geostrategis yang juga bekas pensyarah Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Prof Dr Azmi Hassan menyifatkan piagam itu seakan menyerupai konsep Malaysia Baharu atau prinsip Rukun Negara.

Tegasnya, muafakat itu dilihat tercetus berikutan persepsi Malaysia Baharu dibawa Pakatan Harapan (PH) yang kononnya telah mengetepikan kepentingan agama Islam dan bangsa Melayu.

“UMNO dan PAS sebagai parti politik telah ‘mencuri peluang’ yang terbuka luas dengan persepsi tidak baik terhadap PH,” katanya.

Sementara itu, penganalisis politik Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM), Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani berkata isi piagam berkenaan ‘ringkas’ dan perlu huraian yang lebih jelas kerana ia melibatkan soal agama, kaum, hal Melayu, kedudukan rakyat dan Perlembagaan.

"Ia tidak diulas dengan baik untuk meyakinkan rakyat. Malah hala tuju kerjasama UMNO-PAS sendiri belum jelas. Piagam ini tidak boleh menjadi retorik politik atau akan ditolak semasa pilihan raya umum kelak,” katanya.

Ahli Majlis Profesor Negara Prof Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood pula berpendapat piagam itu dilihat akan menjadi cabaran kepada kerajaan PH untuk “walk the talk” dan seterusnya berusaha bersungguh-sungguh menyelesaikan isu berbangkit daripada manifesto yang dijanjikan sebelum ini.

"Ia juga satu cabaran kepada kerajaan sekarang untuk sama-sama memastikan isu sensitif ditangani dengan lebih berhati-hati untuk kepentingan semua,” jelasnya.

-- BERNAMA