'PRK Kimanis: tidak ubah status quo, medan lonjak moral parti'@Bernama, 6 Januari 2020

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Tarikh kemaskini: 06/01/2020

Oleh Muhammad Ammar Shafiq Hamzah dan Rohana Nasrah

KIMANIS, 6 Jan -- Kemenangan mana-mana calon bagi merebut kerusi Parlimen Kimanis pada Pilihan Raya Kecil (PRK) 18 Jan ini, tidak mungkin mengubah status quo di Dewan Rakyat, namun kejayaan diperoleh akan menjadi lonjakan moral kepada parti berkenaan di persada politik nasional.

Penganalisis politik Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), Ramli Dollah berkata, PRK Kimanis mampu memberi kesan signifikan dari segi psikologi kerana ia berupaya meningkatkan moral setiap parti bertanding terutama jika berdepan kemungkinan PRK lain, mahupun Pilihan Raya Umum ke-15 (PRU15) akan datang.

Beliau berkata PRK tersebut juga akan menjadi kayu pengukur sejauh mana sokongan rakyat terhadap Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) dan rakan sekutunya, Pakatan Harapan (PH) yang kini, masing-masing menerajui pentadbiran negeri Sabah dan Malaysia sejak PRU14 pada Mei 2018.

“Kemenangan biasanya akan membawa kesan domino kepada pilihan raya lain. Terutamanya dalam kalangan pengundi atas pagar. Kemenangan satu parti akan mengubah persepsi terhadap mereka.

“Walaupun kemenangan pada PRK Kimanis tidak menukar status quo (di Parlimen), ia penting kepada psikologi parti dan pengundi. Lebih-lebih lagi dalam usaha menuju PRU15 kerana ia juga mampu memberi keyakinan kepada pengundi (terhadap parti) terutama pengundi atas pagar,” katanya kepada Bernama.

PRK Parlimen Kimanis bakal menyaksikan pertembungan satu lawan satu antara calon Warisan dan Barisan Nasional (BN).

Warisan mempertaruhkan Ketua Bahagian Warisan Kimanis, Datuk Karim Bujang, 67 manakala BN diwakili Datuk Mohamad Alamin, 48, yang juga Ketua Bahagian UMNO Kimanis.

Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya (SPR) menetapkan hari mengundi PRK Kimanis pada 18 Jan manakala hari pengundian awal 14 Jan ini.

Parlimen Kimanis mempunyai dua kawasan Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) - Bongawan dan Membakut.

Mengenai calon, Ramli berkata Karim mempunyai kelebihan untuk memenangi PRK ini, lebih-lebih lagi beliau merupakan calon tempatan ‘orang Kimanis’ selain pernah menjadi wakil rakyat Bongawan selama lima penggal dari 1990 hingga 2013.

Di samping itu, Ramli berkata kekuatan Karim turut didukung oleh partinya, Warisan yang mentadbir kerajaan Sabah, selain mendapat sokongan daripada PH.

“Sebagai parti pemerintah sama ada di peringkat negeri dan nasional, ini kekuatan kepada calon bertanding. Calon parti pemerintah mampu memberi beberapa perkara yang tidak dapat diberikan oleh parti pembangkang,” jelasnya.

Ramli, yang juga pensyarah kanan Fakulti Kemanusiaan, Seni dan Warisan UMS, bagaimanapun, berkata wujud cabaran besar kepada Karim terutama berdepan dengan beberapa isu berbangkit melibatkan kerajaan ketika ini terutama isu berkaitan janji di peringkat negeri dan nasional.

Isu tersebut akan menjadi tentangan hebat buat Karim selain menguji kemampuannya menangkis segala serangan daripada pihak pembangkang secara profesional dan ilmiah, katanya.

Sementara itu, penganalisis politik Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, berkata, senario politik Sabah adalah unik dan berbeza daripada situasi di Semenanjung.

Justeru, beliau berkata BN tidak boleh menggunakan faktor kemenangan dalam PRK Tanjung Piai pada November lalu, sebagai indikator bahawa sentimen pengundi yang sama akan dilihat pada PRK Kimanis.

“Di sini (Kimanis) masyarakatnya berbeza. Isunya juga berbeza seperti Perjanjian Malaysia 1963 (MA63), isu royalti minyak di samping isu kos sara hidup dan isu kenegerian amat penting untuk dilihat oleh BN dan Warisan,” katanya.

Mengulas signifikan PRK Kimanis kepada Warisan dan rakan sekutunya PH, Sivamurugan berkata, PRK ini sangat penting buat mereka terutamanya dalam memberi motivasi dan keyakinan dalam memasuki tahun baru 2020.

“PRK ini juga penting kerana ia bakal menguji kepimpinan Presiden Warisan yang juga Ketua Menteri Sabah, Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal setelah hampir dua tahun memegang tampuk pemerintahan kerajaan negeri.

“Warisan mempunyai beberapa wakil parti itu di peringkat pusat, dan ini semestinya memberi kelebihan dari sudut jentera serta logistik. Shafie juga semestinya akan menggunakan sepenuhnya jentera parti kerana calon datang dari Warisan,” katanya.

Sivamurugan berkata selain perlu menangani sesuatu isu dengan berkesan, faktor calon dan keberkesanan jentera parti bakal menjadi penentu kemenangan kepada mana-mana parti yang bertanding pada PRK itu.

PRK Parlimen Kimanis diadakan selepas Mahkamah Persekutuan pada 2 Dis lepas mengekalkan keputusan Mahkamah Pilihan Raya Kota Kinabalu yang membatalkan kemenangan bekas Menteri Luar, Datuk Seri Anifah Aman, yang ketika itu bertanding atas tiket BN, bagi kerusi itu.

Mahkamah Pilihan Raya Kota Kinabalu pada 16 Ogos lalu memutuskan bahawa kemenangan Anifah di kerusi itu sebagai tidak sah dan terbatal selepas mendapati ada kertas undi tambahan yang boleh menjejaskan keputusan pilihan raya.

Daftar pemilih bagi PRK Parlimen Kimanis merangkumi 29,664 pengundi yang terdiri daripada 29,654 pengundi biasa, sembilan pengundi awal dan seorang pengundi tidak hadir luar negara.

-- BERNAMA

'Kimanis by-election outcome: status quo won't change but winning party gets morale boost'@Bernama, 6 January 2020

Kimanis by-election outcome: status quo won't change but winning party gets morale boost

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Last update: 06/01/2020

By Muhammad Ammar Shafiq Hamzah and Rohana Nasrah

KIMANIS, Jan 5 -- The victory of any party in the Kimanis parliamentary by-election on Jan 18 will not change the status quo in Parliament but it will provide a morale boost to the winning political party.

According to Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) political analyst Ramli Dollah, the Kimanis by-election will be significant from the psychological aspect, as the boost to the winning party will be useful in the next potential by-election or the 15th general election.

The by-election will also serve as a yardstick for public support for Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) and its partner, the Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance, with Warisan leading the state government in Sabah, and PH leading the federal government, after securing the general election in May 2018.

"In any election, a win will usually have a domino effect on other elections, particularly among voters on the fence," the senior lecturer at the university's Humanities, Arts and Heritage Faculty told Bernama recently, adding that in particular, it could give such voters confidence in the winning party as it gears up for the 15th general election.

The Jan 18 by-election will see a one-on-one contest between Warisan's Datuk Karim Bujang, 67, and Barisan Nasional (BN) candidate Datuk Mohamad Alamin, 48. Both men are the Kimanis division chiefs for Warisan and UMNO respectively.

The Election Commission has fixed Jan 14 for early voting. The Kimanis area has two state constituencies comprising Bongawan and Membakut.

Ramli believes that of the two candidates, Karim possesses the advantage in securing a win, particularly because he is a local and a five-term assemblyman for Bongawan from 1990 to 2013.

Karim also draws strength from the support of his party and its partnership with the PH alliance, said Ramli, adding that being a candidate from a governing party at either state or national level, is a strength in itself.

Nevertheless, Ramli observes that Karim faces immense challenges in the form of current issues concerning the government particularly promises made at state and national level.

The Warisan candidate will also be tested in terms of his ability to deal with all kinds of attacks from the opposition, the analyst added.

To Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), the political scenario in Sabah is unique and different compared to that in Peninsular Malaysia, and as such, he believes BN should not rely on its win in the Tanjung Piai by-election in November last year, as an indication that voters in Kimanis would share similar sentiments.

"The community in Kimanis is different. The issues are also different, such as the Malaysia Agreement 1963 and the issue of oil royalties, alongside cost of living and statehood issues," he said.

On the significance of the Kimanis by-election to Warisan and its partner PH, Sivamurugan said it was tremendously important, mainly in terms of providing motivation and confidence in 2020.

The by-election will also serve as a test for the leadership of Warisan president and Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal who has been at the helm for almost two years.

"Warisan has a few party representatives at federal level, and this definitely provides an advantage in terms of party machinery and logistics. Shafie will also surely use the full complement of the party machinery because the candidate is from Warisan," Sivamurugan said.

The Kimanis by-election follows the Federal Court ruling on Dec 2 last year to uphold the decision of the Kota Kinabalu Election Court which cancelled the win by BN candidate and former Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Anifah Aman for the same seat during the 14th general election on May 9, 2018.

In its decision on Aug 16 last year, the Election Court ruled that Anifah's win was invalid following the discovery of additional ballot papers that could have compromised the election outcome.

There are a total of 29,664 registered voters in the Kimanis parliamentary constituency.

-- BERNAMA

'UMNO And PKR Chart Their Future'@The Star, 5 December 2019

'Rakyat Zahirkan Protes Kepada PH'@Sinar Harian, 30 November 2019

'Pertembungan Himpunan Parti Politik'@Sinar Harian, 30 November 2019

'Good Move But May Be Too Little, Too Late'@The Sun, 2 December 2019

'Mustahil Undi Tidak Percaya Terhadap PM'@Sinar Harian, 20 November 2019

'Tanjung Piai Ubah Landskap Politik'@Sinar Harian, 18 November 2019

'Politics and Policy: Questions and more questions'@The Edge, 14 November 2019

 

Edge Weekly

Politics and Policy: Questions and more questions

Mohsin Abdullah

/

The Edge Malaysia

November 14, 2019 18:00 pm +08

 

    

 

   

I asked whether it could be for the love of the country or love for Mahathir. Or was it for PAS’ own political survival or fear of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Mahathir’s designated successor?

Long-time PAS watcher Mohd Sayuti Omar had remarked then that while he agreed that Hadi and PAS were trying to drive a wedge between Mahathir and Anwar, he felt that PAS could also have a theory that an Anwar-led Pakatan Harapan would be stronger than the current set-up and that PH under Mahathir would be an easier target come GE15.

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To me, that would be a strange thought to have because many within and outside the political fraternity feel that if there is a strong leader who can put PAS in its place, it would be Mahathir, Anwar’s Islamic credentials notwithstanding.
Mahathir, as we all know, sees Islam differently from PAS and has never minced words in lashing out at the party’s version of Islam.
I am repeating all this because I feel the same questions must be asked again. In fact, more questions need to be asked, what with the ongoing talk of support for Mahathir to serve his full term, although the man himself has never said anything to that effect. True, the prime minister has not given a date and painted a somewhat unclear picture until now.
For the record, based on many media reports, Mahathir has repeatedly said, “I promise I won’t stay too long but I think based on my past experience, I can try to correct all the wrongdoings of [former prime minster] Datuk Seri Najib [Razak].
“When I am satisfied, I will not continue. But I cannot give the specific time as the country is in really big trouble that we cannot easily solve. We have a lot of debt and Datuk Seri Najib has damaged the government machinery. That and other problems left by Najib need to be fixed.”
We are also hearing what political observers describe as “disturbing news” of opposition members working with some people in PH to pledge so-called support for Mahathir. They want to set up what is seen as a backdoor government — an all-Malay line-up that will not feature DAP and Amanah.
So, in addition to the questions posed to Hadi and PAS in my August article, I would say the questions now should be extended to those who are on record as saying that they want Mahathir to go the distance as well as those who are said to be involved but have denied involvement.
The big question would be what’s in it for them. To put it another way, what do they want? To be in power or should it be to regain the power that was lost in GE14? Cabinet posts perhaps? Or could it be like what Anwar said recently, “for personal survival ... to close MACC [Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission] cases”.
Dr Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, says, “I think apart from obvious self-interest such as political power and positions, being conservative elements, their minds are coloured by the various salacious allegations against Anwar over the years despite his sizeable religious credentials.”
Political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian puts it this way: “They may want to reposition themselves, strengthen power inside or outside the party ...  and the timeline may decide their future career in politics as well.”
Anwar has reportedly stated that there are saboteurs in PH seeking to derail the plan for him to take over from Mahathir.
“There are pockets — people who, for their own reasons, would like to sabotage the arrangement,” he had been quoted as saying. That implies that he does not seem to know why they would want to throw a spanner in the works. Or that’s the impression he wants to give.
There are people who have said upfront that they want Mahathir to serve his full term, such as 18 MPs from PAS and six from Umno.
A key question for them and those working behind the scenes is do they want Mahathir to also lead PH in GE15? Or assuming he does serve his full term and makes way for Anwar, would they support Anwar as the new prime minister? Their stance thus far has always been for Mahathir to stay for the full term without Anwar coming into the picture midway.
As Oh sees it, “I think they hope by the end of a full term for Mahathir, the premiership would be passed on to somebody else, with the excuse that Anwar by then would be at an advanced age, for example”.
With so much noise on the transition plan, Mahathir reiterated recently that only the PH presidential council can determine who is prime minister.
He said the suggestion by opposition MPs that he remain as prime minister until the next general election was only their opinion.
“That is their opinion. The one who will determine is the Pakatan Harapan presidential council. We will decide,” he said.
That’s as clear as it gets for now.
 

'Formula Kemenangan BN'@Sinar Harian, 17 November 2019

'In Tanjung Piai, analysts see voters punishing Pakatan for incompetence'@Malay Mail, 17 November 2019

In Tanjung Piai, analysts see voters punishing Pakatan for incompetence

Syed Jaymal Zahiid And Jerry Choong

Malay Mail17 November, 2019

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 17 — Voters in Tanjung Piai vented against what is likely seen as a dysfunctional government dogged by contradictions and tiresome infighting when they voted out incumbent Pakatan Harapan (PH) in yesterday’s by-election, political analysts said.

The ruling coalition’s crushing defeat underscored the boiling frustration felt by voters angered by the new government’s failure to fulfil many of its key election pledges, they said, adding that PH’s penchant for political squabbling may have also alienated its own supporters.

“People are rejecting the PH government that is seen as dysfunctional in so many ways,” said Arnold Puyok, a political analyst with Universiti Malaysia Sarawak.

“From the lethargic governing system to handicap in delivering the promises.”

The Tanjung Piai parliamentary seat was returned to Barisan Nasional’s (BN) fold in yesterday’s by-election in a result most political pundits saw coming, with the former ruling coalition securing up to 75 per cent of votes, including from several Chinese-majority voting streams.

In the final tally, BN’s candidate Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng from MCA received 25,466 votes to bag a majority of 15,086 over PH’s Karmaine Sardini from Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia, who received 10,380 votes, confirming pundits’ forecast.

 

The receding Chinese votes provided an early warning to the ruling coalition that its minority power base is not as secure as it would like to believe, Puyok said.

This point was made clear by the fact that many Chinese voters still rooted for Wee even as efforts were taken to paint Muafakat Nasional — the Umno-PAS alliance — as a grave threat to minority rights.

According to Puyok, it would seem that frustration over PH’s perceived incompetence had trumped Chinese fear of the Umno-PAS union, which underlined the community’s scepticism of the frail power-sharing formula that holds the ideologically opposing ruling parties.

“Power-sharing is very important in maintaining order and influence, but PH is unable to convince the people of such power-sharing when sloppy leaders of DAP members keep provoking the political stability,” he said.

But from the get-go, PH leaders were already doubtful about retaining Tanjung Piai, a constituency where the Malay and Chinese electorates are almost equally split. 

In the 14th general election, the late Datuk Dr Md Farid Md Rafik of Bersatu had won with a slim majority of 524 votes only because PAS had split BN’s Malay votes.

 

The candidate factor was also pivotal in BN’s victory. MCA’s Wee was already a popular candidate having served the seat as its MP since the 90s, giving him the upper hand against the low-key Karmaine.

“The BN candidate is more credible,” said Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Sivamurugan Pandian.

“The PH internal factor may also have become the push factor including the choice of candidate, machinery and failure to attract crowds during the campaign.”

Ibrahim Suffian, director of pollster Merdeka Center, concurred but said Chinese voters were also likely to have been angered by the many bizarre policies of the ruling coalition, like the khat controversy.

“I think open political bickering within the PH coalition, instituting policies that voters didn’t ask for (for example, Jawi lessons in vernacular schools) and increased ethnic posturing have contributed to a swing among Chinese voters,” he said.

As for Malay votes, BN won them overwhelmingly. Analysts said this underpinned the success of Muafakat Nasional in galvanising conservative Malay support.

“The Umno-PAS alliance is clearly working,” said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

“It brought out their combined Malay votes.”

'APa Makna PRK Tanjung Piai'@Sinar Harian, 14 November 2019